Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new approach from Washington follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require sustained allied backing.
