A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. They composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
